"The reality is, the U.S.-China relationship is likely never going to be the same."
It never was. As you pointed out, the narrative about US-China relations has been a lie. They have been engaged in a war on US producers for the past twenty years, and the US - fatted as it has been on low prices and increased profit margins - reacted with a yawn.
To the extent that we are collectively okay with becoming a vassal state to China, fine. But China is becoming increasingly aggressive about certain things that have historical been regarded as vital US interests: Taiwan, most notably. And whether our motivations are humanitarian or pragmatic (chip industry, I'm looking at you), the day that China decides to cross the Strait will almost certainly be an inflection point.
As it stands, they have the US in a fork. Failing to defend Taiwan will likely be catastrophic for American foreign policy, and will likely lead to the de facto end of American influence in the Western Pacific.
But defending Taiwan will likely - at best - result in a Pyhrric victory, since China now has sufficiently large and modern forces to exercise local air and naval superiority around Taiwan. Thus, any battle is likely to be a bloodbath, costing us - in addition to the human cost - ships and aircraft that we cannot afford to lose, and that we cannot quickly replace. (Compare that to China's ability to construct new ships and aircraft. In an odd way, we are akin to Japan in 1941, and China is akin to the US.) Thus, even an operational victory may come at an immense strategic price.
Moreover, COVID should have provided us with a glimpse of what our lives will be like if the balloon goes up. We lacked basic necessities. Imagine what will happen when we go to war with China. And imagine what will happen when chip production is either destroyed by the Taiwanese or in Chinese hands after a bloody war.
Even ignoring the nuclear side of this, whether we like it or not, we are in a conflict with a country that is rapidly overtaking us, and that views us as its primary adversary. That is existential. If we continue business as usual, we lose. I don't like the pain that is coming, but I prefer it to the pain that will come if we don't restore American industry.
The most significant news item on the Taiwan/PRC front is the CHIPS act which is basically clawing back semiconductor manufacturing back to US domestic production. As to whoever allowed a strategic resource to be almost monopolistically migrated to such an exposed locality - that was sheer idiocy!*
America will defend Taiwan as long as necessary - until this production capacity is locally restored. Then its open slather for Beijing. But - will they still have the power to act by then? And will they still have such an aggressive leader?
*Allowing PRC to mass industrialise was altogether an own goal for Western civilization - largely out of the greed of the shareholding elites & managerial class.
You skipped the part where Clinton upgraded China’s trading status to “Most Favored Nation” (Clinton’s cronies were already positioned to cash in on the cheap labor, and boy did they! By some estimates, 9 out of 10 new billionaires in the late 90s and early aughts were buddies of Clinton who had an inside line on getting their supply chain shifted to China), while Ross Perot — sadly rendered mute by those who blamed him for Bush’s loss — and many like minded thinkers were jumping up and down, screaming in protest.
You also skipped the part where China upped the ante in 2019 by unleashing their virus on the world (some of us will never believe it was an accident).
The key is “The U.S. imported $439 billion worth of goods from China, USA only exported $144 billion back.” That is the leverage. This has been along time (at least 5 years) coming and if as a manufacturer you haven’t found sources outside of China by now you deserve to go out of business. We as consumers will pay more but we need to start looking for “made in America “ labels on everything we purchase. We need to stand firm and solve the China issue once and for all.
2nd analysis of this situation I've read, same plot line.
To be concise: We allowed ourselves to be seduced by cheap stuff and de-industialization (Was it for a 'cleaner' environment?). Worker dignity? (We can engage in 'knowledge work'.) Or did we really believe that China would play by the Globalist Rules?
The stakes are high, we can win. If we have a national desire to do so.
Gonna need real men now! Gotta rebuild a nation, towns, cities and communities! Rosie the Riveter job shifts from Human Resources back to the line! Make babies!
I’ve been thinking about this as a win for the many hoarders in this country who never throw anything away. Suddenly fixing stuff will be a valuable American skill again, as we bring down the glut of excess stuff here
"The reality is, the U.S.-China relationship is likely never going to be the same."
It never was. As you pointed out, the narrative about US-China relations has been a lie. They have been engaged in a war on US producers for the past twenty years, and the US - fatted as it has been on low prices and increased profit margins - reacted with a yawn.
To the extent that we are collectively okay with becoming a vassal state to China, fine. But China is becoming increasingly aggressive about certain things that have historical been regarded as vital US interests: Taiwan, most notably. And whether our motivations are humanitarian or pragmatic (chip industry, I'm looking at you), the day that China decides to cross the Strait will almost certainly be an inflection point.
As it stands, they have the US in a fork. Failing to defend Taiwan will likely be catastrophic for American foreign policy, and will likely lead to the de facto end of American influence in the Western Pacific.
But defending Taiwan will likely - at best - result in a Pyhrric victory, since China now has sufficiently large and modern forces to exercise local air and naval superiority around Taiwan. Thus, any battle is likely to be a bloodbath, costing us - in addition to the human cost - ships and aircraft that we cannot afford to lose, and that we cannot quickly replace. (Compare that to China's ability to construct new ships and aircraft. In an odd way, we are akin to Japan in 1941, and China is akin to the US.) Thus, even an operational victory may come at an immense strategic price.
Moreover, COVID should have provided us with a glimpse of what our lives will be like if the balloon goes up. We lacked basic necessities. Imagine what will happen when we go to war with China. And imagine what will happen when chip production is either destroyed by the Taiwanese or in Chinese hands after a bloody war.
Even ignoring the nuclear side of this, whether we like it or not, we are in a conflict with a country that is rapidly overtaking us, and that views us as its primary adversary. That is existential. If we continue business as usual, we lose. I don't like the pain that is coming, but I prefer it to the pain that will come if we don't restore American industry.
The most significant news item on the Taiwan/PRC front is the CHIPS act which is basically clawing back semiconductor manufacturing back to US domestic production. As to whoever allowed a strategic resource to be almost monopolistically migrated to such an exposed locality - that was sheer idiocy!*
America will defend Taiwan as long as necessary - until this production capacity is locally restored. Then its open slather for Beijing. But - will they still have the power to act by then? And will they still have such an aggressive leader?
*Allowing PRC to mass industrialise was altogether an own goal for Western civilization - largely out of the greed of the shareholding elites & managerial class.
Agreed.
You skipped the part where Clinton upgraded China’s trading status to “Most Favored Nation” (Clinton’s cronies were already positioned to cash in on the cheap labor, and boy did they! By some estimates, 9 out of 10 new billionaires in the late 90s and early aughts were buddies of Clinton who had an inside line on getting their supply chain shifted to China), while Ross Perot — sadly rendered mute by those who blamed him for Bush’s loss — and many like minded thinkers were jumping up and down, screaming in protest.
You also skipped the part where China upped the ante in 2019 by unleashing their virus on the world (some of us will never believe it was an accident).
The key is “The U.S. imported $439 billion worth of goods from China, USA only exported $144 billion back.” That is the leverage. This has been along time (at least 5 years) coming and if as a manufacturer you haven’t found sources outside of China by now you deserve to go out of business. We as consumers will pay more but we need to start looking for “made in America “ labels on everything we purchase. We need to stand firm and solve the China issue once and for all.
MADE IN AMERICA. Let’s GO!!! Put us all to work building our own stuff.
PS- Great work, girl!! Love your stuff. 🥰
Thanks for a very informative summary.
2nd analysis of this situation I've read, same plot line.
To be concise: We allowed ourselves to be seduced by cheap stuff and de-industialization (Was it for a 'cleaner' environment?). Worker dignity? (We can engage in 'knowledge work'.) Or did we really believe that China would play by the Globalist Rules?
The stakes are high, we can win. If we have a national desire to do so.
Gonna need real men now! Gotta rebuild a nation, towns, cities and communities! Rosie the Riveter job shifts from Human Resources back to the line! Make babies!
It’s odd to think of this as a consequence of trade policy… but yes! It exactly is!
I’ve been thinking about this as a win for the many hoarders in this country who never throw anything away. Suddenly fixing stuff will be a valuable American skill again, as we bring down the glut of excess stuff here